美联储预防式降息将至，美元资产会怎么走？

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference, indicating an openness to interest rate cuts, which led to a significant market reaction with the Dow Jones rising by 2% to a new historical high [1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with new job additions averaging only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the expected 168,000 for 2024 [1] - Powell highlighted that inflation risks are currently tilted upwards while employment risks are leaning downwards, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, primarily as a preventive measure against future economic uncertainties, with a total of up to two rate cuts anticipated within the year [4] - The stock market typically benefits from rate cuts due to improved liquidity and lower financing costs, which can enhance risk appetite [2][4] - The technology sector remains resilient and independent of traditional economic cycles, contributing to the recent highs in the stock market [5] Group 3 - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to address weaknesses in traditional demand, particularly in manufacturing and real estate, which have been adversely affected by high financing costs [6] - Market reactions to rate cuts often lead to upward adjustments in stock indices, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 6,400 to 6,700 points [4][6] - The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may not necessarily decline significantly following rate cuts, as historical patterns suggest a rebound in yields and dollar strength post-cut [7]