Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that following Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, Wall Street banks have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley now predicting rate cuts starting in September [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in September and December, followed by quarterly cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, aiming for a target rate of 2.75%-3.0% [1] - Powell's shift in tone regarding labor market risks indicates a potential preemptive adjustment in monetary policy to address downside risks in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Other international banks, including Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank, have also revised their forecasts, now expecting a 25 basis point cut in September and two cuts within the year [2] - The Dutch bank ING has updated its predictions, anticipating rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2025, followed by a 50 basis point cut in 2026 [2] - The likelihood of a September rate cut has increased from 75% to 87% according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool [3]
大摩调整预期：美联储9月降息25基点 到明年底共降6次
Feng Huang Wang·2025-08-26 11:03