三党联手逼宫！法国总理贝鲁政府濒临垮台 政治风暴引爆市场震荡

Core Viewpoint - The French government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou is facing increasing opposition, with three major opposition parties indicating they will vote against a confidence motion, potentially leading to the government's downfall as early as next month [1][3]. Political Situation - The political crisis has caused market volatility, with the French CAC 40 index dropping over 2% for two consecutive days, and the spread between French and German 10-year bond yields nearing its highest point since April, reflecting renewed investor concerns about France's fiscal situation [1][4]. - President Macron is in a difficult position with limited effective solutions, including appointing a new prime minister or dissolving parliament, both of which carry significant risks [3][4]. Government's Fiscal Plan - The government initiated a confidence vote to gain parliamentary support for a fiscal plan that includes €44 billion (approximately $51 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases, which Bayrou believes is crucial to avoid a fiscal crisis [4][6]. - The proposed plan also includes controversial measures such as the cancellation of two public holidays, which has faced strong opposition [4]. Economic Context - Unlike other Eurozone countries, France's public finance recovery has been slow, with the National Audit Office criticizing the government for being overly optimistic about tax revenues and economic growth while failing to control rising expenditures [6]. - France's debt interest payments are projected to exceed €66 billion this year, surpassing spending in other sectors like education, and are expected to rise to €75 billion by 2026 [6]. Market Reaction - The yield on France's 10-year government bonds has reached the highest level in the Eurozone, even surpassing countries like Greece and Portugal, indicating a significant increase in borrowing costs [8]. - The CAC 40 index has declined over 4% since Macron's unexpected announcement of early parliamentary elections last June, contrasting with a 6% increase in the broader European Stoxx 600 index during the same period [9].