崩了！突发黑天鹅

Core Points - The French government is facing a potential collapse as Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced a confidence vote, which could occur next month, leading to significant investor sell-offs of French assets and increased hedging against political uncertainty [3][4] - The political landscape is precarious, with opposition parties, including the far-right National Rally and the left-wing "Unsubmissive France," indicating they will vote against the motion, potentially resulting in Bayrou's resignation if the majority opposes him [3][4] - France's 10-year government bond yield rose by 9 basis points to 3.51%, leading the global bond market decline, with the borrowing cost differential between France and Germany widening to 75 basis points, the highest since April [3][5] Economic Context - Bayrou's push for a confidence vote is part of a broader strategy to consolidate support for a €44 billion (approximately $51 billion) spending cut and tax increase plan, which he deems essential to avoid a public finance disaster [5][6] - The French government is currently facing the widest budget deficit in the Eurozone, with the finance minister projecting a deficit of 5.4% of GDP for the year, but warns that a government collapse could lead to borrowing costs exceeding those of Italy within two weeks [5][6] - Bayrou's efforts to gain public support, including launching a YouTube channel to explain fiscal policies, have not significantly improved his approval ratings, which have fallen to the lowest level for any prime minister during Macron's presidency [6]