ServiceNow Stock To Less Than $450?

Core Insights - ServiceNow has experienced significant revenue growth, increasing from approximately $5.9 billion in 2021 to nearly $11 billion in 2024, with net income reaching $1.66 billion and gross margins of almost 79% [3][12] - Despite this growth, ServiceNow's stock has only appreciated by about 6.8% over the past year and is down nearly 17% year-to-date, raising concerns about its high valuation compared to competitors [3][4] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from over 170x to around 110x, yet it remains significantly higher than competitors like Microsoft and Oracle [4][12] Revenue and Profit Growth - ServiceNow's revenue has grown by nearly $5 billion over the past four years, with trailing twelve-month earnings reaching $1.66 billion and free cash flow of $3.85 billion [3][12] - The company reported $3.22 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase, surpassing expectations [7] Competitive Landscape - ServiceNow's growth is beginning to slow, with subscription revenue growth tempered compared to competitors like Microsoft Azure (39% growth) and Google Cloud (32% growth) [7] - The company's AI strategy, including "Now Assist" tools, faces competition from Microsoft and Salesforce, which are integrating AI into their platforms in more user-friendly ways [8] Economic and Market Challenges - Broader economic pressures, including inflation and stricter corporate budgets, pose risks to enterprise IT spending, which could impact ServiceNow's subscription model [9][12] - Historical performance indicates that ServiceNow's stock has been volatile during economic downturns, with a notable 51% decline in 2022 [11][13] Valuation Concerns - The current valuation of ServiceNow at almost 110x trailing earnings raises questions about sustainability, especially as growth rates may be challenging to maintain amid increasing competition and macroeconomic risks [12][14] - Even slight disappointments in areas such as AI adoption or subscription renewals could lead to significant stock declines [12]