NIO or LI: Which Chinese EV Stock Looks Better Placed Pre-Q2 Earnings?

Core Insights - NIO Inc. and Li Auto are set to report their Q2 2025 results, raising questions about their current positioning in the EV market [1] Product Lineup - Li Auto focuses on a hybrid approach with extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and has a successful L-series lineup [1] - NIO is committed to pure EVs, offering a diverse range of sedans and SUVs, and is expanding with its ONVO mass-market division and Firefly premium brand [2] Deliveries and Growth - In Q2 2025, Li Auto delivered 111,074 vehicles, while NIO delivered 72,056 vehicles [3] - Li Auto's deliveries increased by 2.3% year-over-year, whereas NIO's deliveries surged by 25.6% [3] Profitability and Margins - NIO's vehicle margin improved to 10.2% in Q1 2025, up from 9.2% a year ago [4] - Li Auto's vehicle margin was 19.8% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 19.3% the previous year, indicating stronger profitability [5] Financial Strength - As of March 31, 2025, Li Auto had approximately $15.3 billion in cash, while NIO had $3.6 billion [6] - NIO's long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio is 75%, compared to Li Auto's 10.8%, indicating Li Auto's stronger financial position [6] Technological Bets - NIO's strategy includes a battery swap network with over 3,400 stations, enhancing EV adoption [10] - Li Auto is focused on autonomous driving technology, aiming for level-4 autonomy with its Li AD Max and Pro systems [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - NIO shares rose by 27% over the past six months, while Li Auto shares fell by 25% [12] - NIO trades at a lower forward price-to-sales ratio compared to Li Auto, making it more attractively valued [13] Future Estimates - NIO's sales are projected to grow by 50% in 2025 and 36% in 2026, with a significant narrowing of losses expected [16] - Li Auto's sales are expected to grow by only 6% in 2025, with a projected decline in earnings before rebounding in 2026 [17] Final Verdict - NIO shows stronger growth potential, accelerating deliveries, and a more attractive valuation, positioning it better than Li Auto ahead of earnings season [19]