Keurig Dr Pepper(US:KDP) 智通财经网·2025-08-26 13:17Core Viewpoint - Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is implementing a strategy focused on its core business to reverse the underperformance following its merger, with plans to split into two companies: one focusing on coffee and the other on energy drinks and sodas [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - KDP announced the acquisition of JDE Peet's for €15.7 billion (approximately $18.3 billion), marking the end of a decade of expansion driven by the "caffeine economy" that failed to yield substantial returns [1] - The acquisition price of €31.85 per share represents a 20% premium over JDE Peet's closing price prior to the announcement, while JDE Peet's stock has risen 59% this year under new CEO Rafael Oliveira [2] Group 2: Financial Implications - The transaction's cost is considered high, with an estimated investment capital return rate exceeding 7%, but still below JDE Peet's weighted average cost of capital of 8% [2] - The carbonated beverage subsidiary is projected to achieve an EBITDA of $3.3 billion over the past 12 months, potentially leading to a valuation of approximately $67 billion based on an average valuation multiple of 20 times [3] Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The coffee business's valuation is less compelling due to previous struggles with rising coffee bean prices and failed ventures in capsule coffee, but the merger is expected to provide economies of scale [6] - The independent coffee subsidiary's EBITDA of $3.1 billion could correspond to a valuation of around $35 billion, based on a valuation multiple of over 11 times from competitors like Nestlé [6] - The combined valuation of both subsidiaries is projected to exceed $100 billion, while their current enterprise value is approximately $83 billion [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The transaction does not address ongoing challenges such as rising coffee bean prices and increasing competition from global giants like Starbucks and local coffee shops [6] - The declining appeal of carbonated beverages among health-conscious consumers remains an unresolved issue, indicating that long-term value creation will depend on overcoming these deeper challenges [6]