Group 1: Market Overview - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.627%, the highest since October 2008 [1][3] - The 10-year bond futures have fallen to their lowest level since 2009, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][3] - The 30-year bond yield has also surged to 3.235%, surpassing the previous high of 3.2% set in July [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - Investors are concerned about potential new fiscal stimulus measures from the Japanese government, which could lead to a substantial increase in bond issuance [4] - Ongoing inflation in Japan is diminishing the appeal of fixed-income assets and reinforcing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan [4][8] - The recent comments from the Bank of Japan Governor indicate a growing likelihood of interest rate hikes due to rising wages and tightening labor market conditions [9] Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a notable decline in demand for Japanese government bonds from foreign investors, with net purchases of long-term bonds dropping to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, only one-third of June's purchases [5][6] - The decrease in foreign investment is raising concerns about potential instability in the long end of the yield curve [6] Group 4: Budget Implications - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to request 32.3865 trillion yen (approximately 1.57 trillion RMB) for debt servicing in the 2026 budget, an increase of about 4 trillion yen compared to the previous year's record budget [6] - The "interest payment" portion of the debt servicing is expected to rise by 24% to 13.0435 trillion yen, while the "debt repayment" portion will increase by 9.3% to 19.3104 trillion yen [6]
日本债市遭猛烈抛售，发生了什么？
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-08-26 13:16