S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025

Core Insights - The June 2025 results indicate a significant shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising only 1.9% year-over-year, the slowest growth since summer 2023 [2][4] - The data reveals a notable volatility in home prices, with a decline of 0.6% in the first half of the year followed by a 2.5% increase in the latter half, suggesting a pivotal change in the housing market around early 2025 [2][4] - A geographic divergence is evident, with New York leading with a 7.0% annual gain, while former high-performing markets like Tampa and Phoenix are now experiencing declines [3][9] Year-over-Year Summary - The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 1.9% annual gain for June, down from 2.3% in the previous month [7] - The 10-City Composite increased by 2.6%, down from 3.4%, and the 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% gain, down from 2.8% [7][8] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7% from June 2024 to June 2025, outpacing the 1.9% increase in national home prices, indicating a decline in real housing wealth [4][8] Month-over-Month Summary - The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite experienced declines of -0.1% and -0.04%, respectively [10] - After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index fell by 0.3%, with the 10-City Composite down by 0.1% and the 20-City Composite down by 0.3% [10] Future Outlook - The current housing cycle appears to be stabilizing around inflation-parity growth rather than the rapid appreciation seen in recent years, reflecting more sustainable economic fundamentals [6] - The shift from Sun Belt markets to traditional industrial centers suggests a more stable long-term trajectory for housing appreciation [6]