AGNC vs. STWD: Which High-Yield REIT Delivers Better Stability?

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Corp. and Starwood Property Trust, Inc. are two prominent players in the mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) sector, both providing attractive long-term returns and substantial dividend yields. The analysis aims to compare their strengths, risks, and growth potential to determine which offers a better investment opportunity at present [2]. Group 1: AGNC Investment Corp. - AGNC employs an active portfolio-management strategy, regularly adjusting its holdings and implementing hedges to respond to market changes, positioning itself defensively against volatility [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, AGNC maintained a significant interest rate hedge covering 89% of its outstanding balance, which may enhance cash flow stability and support long-term growth [4]. - The company holds $73.3 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), benefiting from government guarantees, which are expected to yield attractive risk-adjusted returns despite market volatility [5]. - AGNC's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was reported at $6.4 billion as of June 30, 2025, with a modest increase in leverage to 7.6X [6]. - AGNC has a high dividend yield of 14.66%, exceeding the industry average of 12.12% [17]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 15.4% for AGNC in 2025 [20]. Group 2: Starwood Property Trust, Inc. - Starwood Property specializes in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and manages a portfolio of nearly $27 billion as of June 30, 2025, allowing for stable income generation [7]. - The company has actively optimized its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and divestitures, including the sale of 16 retail properties for $387.1 million in February 2024 [8]. - Starwood's liquidity position is strong, with cash and cash equivalents of $475 million and no short-term debt as of June 30, 2025 [10]. - Starwood is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 1.06X, which is a discount compared to the industry average, making it a more attractive option for value investors [14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Starwood suggests a year-over-year earnings decline of 6.4% for 2025, but a rise of 7.7% for 2026 [23]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - In the past six months, STWD shares increased by 4.8%, while AGNC shares rose by 1.7%, outperforming the industry growth of 0.8% [11]. - AGNC is trading at a premium, while STWD trades at a discount, indicating a stronger earnings outlook for STWD [9][14]. - STWD's dividend yield is 9.53%, supported by more sustainable fundamentals and a clearer path to earnings growth compared to AGNC [17][28]. - AGNC is characterized by a defensive income strategy through Agency MBS and hedging, while STWD demonstrates greater resilience and flexibility with disciplined portfolio management [27][28]. - Currently, AGNC holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), whereas Starwood Property has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a preference for STWD among investors [29].