Can Novo Nordisk Offset GLP-1 Pressures With Rare Disease Wins?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) has faced a significant setback in July, reducing its 2025 sales and profit outlook due to slower-than-expected growth in its semaglutide-based drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, particularly in the U.S. obesity market [1] - The company is working to diversify its revenue sources beyond GLP-1 drugs, focusing on its Rare Disease franchise, which has seen notable regulatory milestones [2] - The FDA granted accelerated approval for Wegovy to treat noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), marking a significant advancement in liver care [3] Sales and Market Performance - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have rapidly gained market share, generating combined sales of $14.7 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for 52% of Eli Lilly's total revenues [4] - Novo Nordisk's stock has underperformed, losing 34.5% year-to-date compared to a 0.3% decline in the industry [6][8] Regulatory Developments - Novo Nordisk has received EU approval for Alhemo to treat hemophilia A and B, enhancing its Rare Disease portfolio [2][8] - Wegovy is now the first GLP-1 therapy approved for MASH, providing a new treatment option for patients with liver disease [3][8] Financial Estimates and Valuation - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased from $3.98 to $3.84 per share, while 2026 estimates have dropped from $4.56 to $4.09 [12] - Novo Nordisk's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 14.07, lower than the industry average of 14.85 and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [9]