人民币汇率短期或偏强运行

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both external and internal factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve and a strong domestic capital market [1][2]. External Factors - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy has opened up space for RMB appreciation, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar index [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has encouraged export companies to accelerate their currency conversion, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. Internal Factors - The recent recovery of the domestic capital market, particularly the A-share market, has increased risk appetite and led to a rise in cross-border capital inflows into RMB assets [2]. - China's stable economic growth and favorable foreign trade conditions, along with a high trade surplus, have improved market sentiment and reduced concerns over trade tensions [2]. Short-term Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, supported by stable domestic economic performance and increased currency conversion by enterprises [3]. - A slight adjustment in the RMB exchange rate was observed following a significant rise, influenced by technical corrections and a minor rebound in the US dollar index [2]. Long-term Outlook - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a strong position in the short term, with potential for appreciation, while the long-term outlook remains stable due to the Federal Reserve's policies and domestic economic stability [3]. - The risks of significant appreciation or depreciation of the RMB are considered low, with ample policy space for counter-cyclical adjustments to ensure economic stability [3].