Why Lululemon's Global Expansion Could Outweigh North America Slowdown

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon Athletica Inc. is facing investor concerns regarding slowing growth in North America and increasing discounting, but its strong brand, innovation pipeline, and global expansion position it as a resilient retail growth story [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson reiterated a Buy rating on Lululemon, lowering the price forecast from $370 to $300 [1]. - The stock could re-rate if Lululemon achieves second-quarter sales growth of 7–8% and provides similar guidance for the second half [2]. - Hutchinson adjusted the price objective to a 20x P/E basis from 14x EV/EBITDA to align with growth stock valuation methods, reflecting a tougher macro backdrop [2]. Group 2: Growth Opportunities and Challenges - Investors are frustrated by inconsistent explanations for the slowdown in North America, with the latest reason linked to limited scale on successful innovation [3]. - Despite the slowdown in first-quarter international growth, international markets, representing about 25% of sales, are viewed as the company's strongest long-term growth opportunity due to a relatively small store base outside North America [4]. - Lululemon expects a 50-basis-point hit in the second half under its tariff guidance for the rest of the world and China, with current ROW tariffs at 20% [5]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Lululemon is relatively better positioned than its peers due to its premium brand and ability to offset costs with slight price increases, although concerns about rising discounting are increasing [6].