美联储降息预期升温 龙头商品有望借势上涨

Group 1 - The market is reacting to the dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with heightened expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][2] - The necessity for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased due to rising unemployment and inflation risks, with predictions of two rate cuts in 2025 [2][3] - There is a consensus in the industry that the Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle, driven by a slowdown in the labor market and declining inflation [3] Group 2 - Different commodities respond differently to interest rate changes, with industrial commodities typically declining during rate-cutting cycles due to weakened demand [3][4] - Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates, with its attractiveness decreasing when real rates rise, while copper is seen as an economic barometer, affected by construction and manufacturing demand [4][5] - Agricultural products are less directly sensitive to interest rates, primarily influenced by supply-side factors such as weather and policies [5][6] Group 3 - In the current context, commodities like copper, silver, and gold are expected to see price increases due to their sensitivity to Federal Reserve policies [6] - The global economic performance, particularly from China, significantly impacts commodity prices, with expectations of a strong U.S. economy potentially driving demand [6] - The Federal Reserve's shift away from allowing short-term inflation overshoot towards a traditional 2% inflation target may limit aggressive rate cuts, affecting the price dynamics of non-ferrous metals [6]