中金：港股短期落后 长期胜在结构 关注海外映射链条

Core Viewpoint - The short-term performance of Hong Kong stocks is expected to lag due to liquidity constraints, with A-shares having a liquidity advantage and ongoing earnings downgrades impacting the market [1][2][13]. Liquidity - The recent increase in Hibor rates indicates tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with rates rising from near zero to nearly 3% within a week, affecting the secondary market [2][3]. - In contrast, A-shares have seen abundant liquidity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan and financing balances surpassing 2 trillion yuan, indicating a strong influx of funds [3]. Fundamental Factors - Earnings for Hong Kong stocks are being continuously downgraded, with consensus estimates for the Hang Seng Index's 2025 earnings showing a negative growth of -1.4%, compared to a positive growth of 17.8% for 2024 [5]. - Approximately 60% of companies within the Hang Seng Index are experiencing earnings downgrades, reflecting a broader economic weakness [5]. Valuation - The AH premium has dropped below 125%, reducing the attractiveness of dividends for many investors, which is consistent with previous analyses [5][13]. - The Hang Seng Index's risk premium is currently at 5.8%, lower than previous lows since October, indicating a challenging valuation environment [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The recent performance of A-shares may be driven more by liquidity than fundamentals, suggesting a potential for some spillover effects to Hong Kong stocks if the liquidity environment continues to strengthen [8][13]. - The Hang Seng Index's reasonable range is estimated between 24,000 and 26,000, with the need for further conditions to be met for a significant breakthrough [9][10]. Structural Opportunities - Long-term structural advantages remain for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which could provide stable returns [13][14]. - The market's structural dynamics indicate that capturing the right sector rotations can yield returns significantly above the index, emphasizing the importance of timing and selection [14]. Overseas Mapping - In a liquidity-driven market environment, overseas demand and mapping chains, such as technology narratives and U.S. real estate impacts, present additional investment opportunities [15].