特朗普罢免库克加剧通胀担忧 期权交易员大举押注美债收益率曲线趋陡

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, leading to increased demand for put options on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a bearish outlook on long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in demand for long-term Treasury put options, with the skew reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, reflecting a bearish sentiment [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has widened to the highest level since 2021, indicating that 30-year Treasuries are underperforming compared to shorter maturities [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Fed Chair Powell's hint at potential rate cuts to support the labor market, the yield curve has steepened, with investors favoring curve steepener trades [3] - Market speculation suggests that Trump may appoint a more dovish policymaker to replace Cook, which could lower short-term rates but risk increasing long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Group 3: Investor Positioning - According to JPMorgan's Treasury All-Client Positioning Survey, net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have decreased by 2 percentage points, shifting to a neutral stance, while net short positions remain unchanged [5][6]