草甘膦市场迎来底部反转

Core Viewpoint - Glyphosate has experienced a turnaround after three years of low performance, with prices rising from 22,000 yuan to 26,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of nearly 20% [1] Group 1: Price and Demand Dynamics - The price of glyphosate has significantly increased due to low industry inventory and the traditional export peak season to South America from June to August, leading to tight market supply [2] - Glyphosate's demand is heavily reliant on exports, with 70% of its demand coming from international markets, particularly during the procurement season in South America [2] - The export volume of glyphosate in the first half of the year reached 331,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, while the export value was $970 million, up 11.1% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Cost Factors - The production of glyphosate is constrained by strict policies on yellow phosphorus capacity and energy consumption, leading to price fluctuations [3] - The average price of yellow phosphorus in the first half of the year was 23,300 yuan, an increase of 464 yuan compared to the average price in 2024 [3] - There has been no new production capacity added in the glyphosate industry from 2018 to the first half of 2025, with effective domestic capacity expected to stabilize around 800,000 tons [3] Group 3: Future Price Trends - Glyphosate prices are expected to continue rising due to strong order intake from major companies and low inventory pressure [4] - The market demand for glyphosate is projected to grow with the expansion of genetically modified crop planting and the banning of alternative herbicides [4] - The industry is likely to see an improvement in supply-demand structure, with leading domestic companies potentially increasing their market share due to uncertainties in Monsanto's production capacity [4]