国债期货：股市回调期债继续回升 超长债涨幅居前

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.47%, the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract up by 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 50-year government bond "25 Long Special Government Bond 03" yield down by 2.75 basis points to 2.10%, the 30-year government bond "25 Long Special Government Bond 02" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.98%, the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 10" yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.84%, and the 10-year government bond "23 Coupon Government Bond 11" yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.7560% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 405.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on August 26, with 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remains liquid, with the overnight repo weighted average rate dropping over 3 basis points to around 1.31%, and non-bank institutions' pledged certificates and credit bonds borrowing overnight quoted around 1.4%, with seven-day rates at approximately 1.51-1.52%, slightly lower than the previous day [2] - The central bank's continued support has led to a return to a stable and loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a smooth transition across month-end [2] Operational Suggestions - The stock market experienced a pullback, while the bond market's response to stock market fluctuations has softened, coupled with a loosening funding environment, leading to a continued recovery in bond market sentiment [3] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face resistance around 1.78%-1.80%, with corresponding support for the T2512 contract in the range of 107.4-107.6, although short-term market expectations may still experience volatility [3] - A strategy of light long positions on bond futures during pullbacks is suggested [3]