上海证券：国产芯片替代加速 维持通信行业“增持”评级

Group 1 - The report from Shanghai Securities indicates that the proportion of foreign-sourced chips in China's AI server market will decrease from 63% in 2024 to 42% by 2025, while domestic chip suppliers are expected to increase their share to 40%, highlighting the trend of domestic substitution [1] - The H20 chip production halt reinforces the logic of domestic chip replacement, with companies like Cambricon reporting a 4200% year-on-year revenue increase to 1.111 billion yuan in Q1 2025, achieving a profit of approximately 356 million yuan [1] - The market landscape is shifting, with predictions from TrendForce suggesting a significant increase in the share of domestic chip suppliers in the AI server market, driven by the continuous iteration of large models and the expansion of GPU-centric intelligent computing centers [1] Group 2 - OCS optical circuit switches, which allow direct optical signal routing without conversion, are expected to experience significant growth due to their advantages such as over 50% reduced latency and 40% lower energy consumption per rack [2] - The demand for OCS switches is projected to accelerate, with Google expected to drive the need for approximately 23,000 OCS switches based on its anticipated TPU shipment of 2 million units in 2025 [2] - The expansion of data center scale emphasizes the importance of interconnectivity and single-card computing power, indicating a broad market space for optical circuit switches [2] Group 3 - Companies to watch in chip design and foundry include SMIC, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Jingjia Micro, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Dongxin [3] - Key players in the optical module sector are NewEase, Cambridge Technology, Huagong Technology, and Zhongji Xuchuang [3] - Notable companies in the optical chip market include Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, and Guangxun Technology, while switch manufacturers to monitor are ZTE, Unisoc, Ruijie Networks, and Feiling Kesi [3]