聚丙烯年内一路下行 “金九”旺季或有望止跌并温和反弹

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PP market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices hitting a new low in 2025, primarily due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [1] Supply Analysis - The supply side is expected to increase, adding pressure to the market. New production capacities are set to come online, including a 450,000-ton facility in Ningbo and another 400,000-ton facility in Guangxi, which will significantly impact supply [3] - Existing production facilities are showing reduced maintenance efforts, with fewer planned repairs expected in the second half of the year, leading to a more stable operation [3] - Overall, the supply outlook is leaning towards a loose expectation, which may suppress prices [3] Demand Analysis - Domestic demand is anticipated to improve, particularly due to seasonal factors such as holidays and the back-to-school period, which are expected to boost demand for PP in daily goods and packaging [5] - However, external demand remains uncertain, with reduced export volumes due to tariff fluctuations and previous demand being front-loaded in the first half of the year [5][6] - Despite the challenges in external demand, the overall domestic PP demand is expected to see some growth, providing strong support for the market [6] Market Outlook - Looking ahead to September, while supply is expected to increase, there is optimism regarding domestic demand, which may strengthen market fundamentals [7] - Macro factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could also provide a boost to the PP market [7] - However, the overall supply pressure and cautious consumer spending may limit the extent of price increases, leading to a relatively moderate rise in prices [7]