Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Country Garden Services (06098) experienced a 15% year-on-year decline in core net profit for the first half of 2025, which is 6% lower than the bank's forecast, despite a 10% increase in revenue. The decline in profit is attributed to a 23% increase in administrative expenses. However, management has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the fiscal year 2025, up from 33% in 2024, indicating a dividend yield of 6.5% to 7% [1] Group 1 - Country Garden Services' property management gross profit was unexpectedly better than anticipated, with revenue and gross profit increasing by 7% and 2% year-on-year, respectively, surpassing Morgan Stanley's estimates of 3% and 18% [1] - The gross margin for property management decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 21.8% year-on-year, while the gross margin for community value-added services fell by 8.6 percentage points to 30.4%. Overall gross margin declined by 2.6 percentage points to 18.5%, and core net profit margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 7%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - Accounts receivable showed no improvement, with net accounts receivable days remaining flat at 157 days year-on-year, compared to 147 days at the end of 2024, which is among the highest levels in the industry. Total accounts receivable increased by 8% to 19.9 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the market consensus for Country Garden Services' earnings per share may be revised downward, as the current market consensus predicts net profit to remain flat year-on-year. However, based on the company's latest dividend target, the forecast for dividends per share is expected to be revised upward [2] - After the market initially digests the disappointing earnings, Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price reaction may turn positive due to the upward adjustment in dividend guidance [2]