【环球财经】土耳其央行锁定24%年末通胀目标 首次与预测口径脱钩

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey maintains its medium-term inflation target at 24% for the end of 2025, despite a significant drop in annual inflation to 33.5% in July from a peak of 75.5% in May of the previous year [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Central Bank of Turkey has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July 2023, with expectations that it may drop to 36.2% by the end of the year [1][2] - The Central Bank emphasizes a continued tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved, as domestic demand is slowing and the deflationary effects from weakened demand are increasing [1][3] - The core inflation indicators have shown a temporary rise due to regular price adjustments in the service sector, particularly in housing, hotels, and dining [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and External Factors - The current account deficit was approximately 1.3% of GDP in the second quarter, with expectations that it will remain below long-term averages in 2025, although energy prices and global trade policies pose potential risks [2] - Turkey's economic growth is projected to be 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, which is lower than the previous quarter's growth of 3% [3] - The International Monetary Fund highlights that Turkey's inflation rate remains high and poses challenges to economic growth and financial stability, with structural pressures still unresolved [4]