Burlington Stock: -3.8% Post-Earnings Pattern, Trade It?

Company Overview - Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) is an off-price department store retailer, smaller than competitors like TJX or Ross, but is in a phase of expansion [3] - The company has a current market capitalization of $18 billion and reported revenue of $11 billion over the past twelve months, with operational profits of $730 million and net income of $526 million [3] Earnings Expectations - Burlington Stores is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 28, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.29 per share on $2.63 billion in revenue, indicating an 11% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 6% rise in sales [2] - For Q1 FY2025, Burlington reported sales of $2.5 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, with an EPS of $1.67, exceeding estimates [3] - The company anticipates Q2 sales growth of 5-7% and an EPS of $1.20-$1.30, reaffirming full-year EPS guidance of $8.70-$9.30 and sales growth of 6-8% [3] Historical Performance - Historically, BURL stock has dropped 55% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 3.8% and a maximum recorded drop of 13% [2] - Over the past five years, positive one-day returns post-earnings occurred approximately 45% of the time, with a median of 8.7% for positive returns and -3.8% for negative returns [4] Trading Strategies - For event-driven traders, understanding historical trends may provide an advantage in positioning prior to earnings or reacting to movements post-release [3] - A strategy to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be employed, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [5]