东西问｜李楠：全球外国直接投资有何新趋势？

Group 1: Global Foreign Direct Investment Trends - In 2024, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to decline by 11% to approximately $1.5 trillion, marking the second consecutive year of decline [1] - The primary reason for this decline is a 58% drop in FDI inflows to Europe, affecting 15 of the 27 EU member states, including major economies like Germany, Spain, Italy, and France [1] - The total amount of international project financing (IPF) crucial for infrastructure investment in Europe also decreased by 11% year-on-year, indicating a broader cautious attitude among investors [1] Group 2: FDI in Developing Countries - FDI inflows to developing economies remain relatively stable, accounting for 57% of global FDI inflows in 2024, with a total of $867 billion, showing resilience amid global uncertainties [2] - The inflow of FDI in developing countries is highly concentrated, with ten major emerging markets, including China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India, representing about 75% of total FDI inflows to these regions [2] Group 3: Investment Policy Differences - There is a growing divergence in investment policies between developing and developed countries, with developing nations emphasizing openness to FDI and implementing favorable measures, while developed countries are increasingly adopting restrictive measures [8] - Over 40% of unfavorable measures introduced in 2024 involve new or expanded scrutiny mechanisms, primarily by developed countries, focusing on high-tech industries and critical raw materials essential for energy transition and supply chain resilience [8] Group 4: Digital Economy as an Investment Highlight - The digital economy is identified as the fastest-growing sector for global investment, with greenfield investment projects in this area surging to $360 billion in 2024 [12] - Between 2020 and 2024, developing countries attracted $531 billion in digital economy greenfield investments, with nearly 80% of these projects concentrated in ten countries, including six in Asia and two in Latin America [12] Group 5: Role of China and the U.S. in Global FDI - China and the U.S. are recognized as significant recipients of FDI and are viewed as barometers for global trade and investment trends [16] - China's FDI structure is shifting towards high-tech industries and advanced manufacturing, indicating a positive trend in attracting high-quality investments [16]