Core Viewpoint - Glyphosate has recently experienced a turnaround after three years of low prices, with a price increase from 22,000 yuan to 26,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of nearly 20% [2][3]. Group 1: Price and Demand Dynamics - The price of glyphosate has significantly increased compared to the first quarter, driven by low industry inventory, the traditional export season to South America, and strong recovery demand after prolonged low prices [3]. - Glyphosate is primarily used in agricultural applications, accounting for over 90% of demand, with global production capacity at approximately 1.2 million tons annually, of which 380,000 tons are overseas and 810,000 tons are domestic [3]. - Export volume of glyphosate reached 331,000 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with export value at $970 million, up 11.1% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Cost Factors - The cost of raw materials, including caustic soda, has risen, with the average price of domestic yellow phosphorus at 23,300 yuan, an increase of 464 yuan compared to the previous year [4]. - There has been no new production capacity added in the glyphosate industry from 2018 to mid-2025, with effective domestic capacity expected to stabilize at around 800,000 tons [4]. - The industry is currently in a low inventory phase, with a significant reduction from 78,900 tons in early May to 30,600 tons by August 1 [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Glyphosate prices are expected to continue rising due to strong order intake from major companies and low inventory pressure [5]. - The market demand for glyphosate is anticipated to grow with the expansion of genetically modified crop planting and the banning of alternative herbicides [5]. - The competitive landscape of the industry is likely to improve due to uncertainties surrounding Monsanto's production capacity, potentially increasing market share for domestic leading companies [5].
毛利回升至约1000元!草甘膦后市还会涨吗?
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-08-27 12:16