特朗普解除库克职务，美联储反击来了

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with potential implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [1][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to file a lawsuit regarding her dismissal by President Trump [3][4]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that lowering interest rates may be appropriate at the right time, while maintaining a moderately restrictive policy stance [1]. - The Trump administration is exploring ways to exert more influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, particularly regarding the selection process for regional bank presidents [1][5]. Group 2: Implications for Fed Independence - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could signify the end of the Fed's independence, a status it has held since 1951, with financial markets yet to fully absorb this significant risk [1][11]. - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard views Trump's attack on Cook as part of a broader effort to pressure the Fed, potentially leading to the dismissal of multiple regional Fed presidents [6][8]. - The potential for Trump to control the Fed's monetary policy could result in higher inflation and increased volatility in the financial markets [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Current market conditions reflect a distortion in the Treasury market, with long-term yields rising and short-term real yields falling, indicating that the Fed's independence is perceived to be under threat [12]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that if Trump successfully removes Cook and appoints a candidate favoring significant rate cuts, the power dynamics within the Fed could shift dramatically, leading to a majority of "dovish" votes [12].