华安证券：首次覆盖铜陵有色给予买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the integrated layout of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., emphasizing its continuous improvement in resource self-sufficiency and a "buy" rating for the stock [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tongling Nonferrous Metals operates a complete industrial chain from mining to smelting and processing, with significant domestic mining resources and control over the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [2]. - The company is one of the largest producers of cathode copper in China, with an annual production capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons and an additional capacity of 80,000 tons for high-precision electronic copper foil [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 76.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.9% due to changes in dividend arrangements from overseas subsidiaries [2]. - Revenue and gross profit contributions from copper products accounted for 83.78% and 56.91%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Supply-side constraints due to tight copper ore supply and expanding smelting capacity have led to rising copper prices, supported by stable demand from traditional manufacturing and growth in sectors like AI data centers [3]. - The macroeconomic environment, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, is expected to boost investment demand for copper [3]. Group 4: Resource Development - The Mirador copper mine's production is expected to significantly enhance the company's resource self-sufficiency, with copper concentrate output projected to reach 200,000 tons annually after the second phase of the project [4]. - The company's strategic location in East China, where copper consumption accounts for one-third of the national total, provides logistical advantages [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - With the ramp-up of production from the Mirador project, the company's profit elasticity is anticipated to continue increasing, with projected net profits of 3.36 billion, 5.08 billion, and 5.77 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16.48, 10.90, and 9.60 times [5].