【环球财经】英国央行降息预期降温 英镑前景扑朔迷离

Group 1 - The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain the key interest rate at 4% during the September meeting, but the outlook for interest rates has become uncertain, making it difficult for traders to gauge expectations [1] - Short-term, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have weakened, providing upward momentum for the British pound, as investors believe the Bank will adopt a more cautious approach for a longer period [1] - Analysts from ING suggest that the continued cooling of rate cut expectations supports short-term momentum for the pound, with the euro potentially falling below 0.86 against the pound [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the UK economy continues to face challenges, with retail sales declining for the 11th consecutive month, and the CBI monthly retail sales balance slightly improving but remaining in negative territory [2] - Retailers are experiencing low sentiment and are facing cost and pricing challenges, with average sales price balances rising significantly, indicating that high cost pressures are forcing retailers to increase prices despite weak demand [2] - The UK economy is facing increasing inflationary pressures, with the Bank of England predicting the consumer price index to reach 4% by September, compounded by rising energy price caps affecting millions of households [2] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding interest rate prospects is highlighted by comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann, who is inclined to keep rates unchanged for an extended period but is prepared to take more aggressive policy actions if domestic demand risks materialize [3] - Mann's views align with those of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who noted the severe challenges posed by potential weak economic growth in the UK [3] - If the Bank of England implements aggressive easing policies in 2026, it could negatively impact the British pound [3]