Core Insights - In July, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1] - For the first 17 months of the year, total profits reached 40,203.5 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, indicating a continued improvement in corporate profitability [1] Profit Trends - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, anticipates that as extreme weather disturbances dissipate, supply and demand will gradually normalize, leading to a mild recovery in industrial profits, with monthly year-on-year growth expected to turn slightly positive [5] - In July, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 0.9% year-on-year, and by 2.3% over the first 17 months, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [6] Sector Performance - In July, the manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 5.4 percentage points compared to June, significantly contributing to the overall profit recovery of industrial enterprises [7] - The raw materials manufacturing sector turned from a 5.0% decline in June to a profit increase of 36.9% in July, with the steel and petroleum processing industries achieving profits of 18.09 billion yuan and 3.46 billion yuan, respectively [7] - High-tech manufacturing profits surged by 18.9% in July, with notable growth in aerospace and semiconductor sectors, where profits increased by 40.9% and 176.1%, respectively [7][8] Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - Profits of small and medium-sized enterprises showed significant improvement, with medium and small enterprises turning from declines of 7.8% and 9.7% in June to increases of 1.8% and 0.5% in July [9] - Private enterprises outperformed the national average, with a profit growth of 2.6% in July, indicating a positive impact from government policies aimed at supporting SMEs [10] Policy Impact - The improvement in SME profits is attributed to effective government measures such as tax reductions, subsidies, and enhanced financing support, which have improved the operating environment and profitability of these enterprises [10][13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, to further support industrial growth [17] Future Outlook - The industrial profit recovery is expected to continue, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and addressing external uncertainties, although challenges remain in foreign trade profitability [16] - The government is set to introduce new financial tools to support infrastructure and emerging industries, which may stabilize demand and enhance profit quality in the industrial sector [16][17]
“反内卷”带动工业利润改善 中小企业利润由降转增
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-27 15:54