50%关税生效 印度钻石业将受重创

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a 50% tariff on Indian products by the United States is expected to severely impact India's diamond processing industry, which is already facing challenges due to declining global demand for diamonds [1]. Group 1: Impact on Indian Diamond Industry - India is the largest natural diamond processing country, handling approximately 90% of the world's diamond cutting and polishing [1]. - The new tariff will exacerbate the already struggling Indian diamond export business, which is projected to generate around $32 billion in jewelry exports for the fiscal year 2023-2024, with the U.S. accounting for about one-third of this market, approximately $9 billion [1]. - The chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) expressed significant concern over the impact of the tariffs on the entire value chain of the industry [1]. Group 2: Response from Indian Businesses - Due to the new tariffs, U.S. clients have begun canceling orders, leading to operational difficulties for many local factories in India [1]. - Some diamond processing factories are reducing raw diamond purchases, lowering inventory, cutting working hours to maintain cash flow, and even significantly lowering prices to stay operational [1]. - There are plans among several factories to shift processing operations to countries with lower tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The tariff increase is expected to raise procurement costs for U.S. importers, potentially leading to a 5%-10% increase in retail prices for natural diamonds, which may drive consumers towards more cost-effective options like lab-grown diamonds or second-hand jewelry [2]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Indian diamond merchants will return to the Chinese market, as the transition of production capabilities is complex and time-consuming [3]. - Some analysts suggest that Indian companies might resort to "third-country transshipment" (e.g., through Dubai or Israel) to circumvent tariffs, although this could increase logistics costs and delivery times, thereby reshaping the global diamond supply chain [3].