美联储独立性再遭侵蚀 黄金“避风港地位”加固

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat following Trump's dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, leading to potential pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, while increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Market Volatility - Trump's dismissal of Lisa Cook has intensified the conflict between him and the Federal Reserve, with Cook asserting that Trump lacks the legal authority to fire her [2]. - Following the announcement, the dollar weakened but later recovered, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 2-year yield down 4.26 basis points to 3.672% and the 10-year yield down 0.78 basis points to 4.261% [2]. - The stock market showed resilience, with all three major indices rising, partly due to Powell's indication of a possible rate cut in September [3]. Gold's Appeal - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is seen as a direct attack on its core principles, which could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets [4]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.62 per ounce, up $28.02 or 0.83% [4]. - Analysts predict that if the Fed loses its independence, gold will become the preferred safe haven for investors, with central banks expected to purchase around 1,000 tons of gold this year [5]. Investment Strategies - In times of financial asset risk, tangible assets like gold and real estate are expected to become safe havens, especially if the Fed's independence is compromised [5]. - The loss of Fed independence poses long-term risks to U.S. bonds and the dollar, prompting suggestions for international investments in stable growth, low-inflation countries as a hedge against rising U.S. inflation [5].