特朗普与美联储斗争升级，华尔街：美国陷入滞胀可能性升高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is approaching a potential stagflation scenario, characterized by rising inflation and slowing economic growth, largely due to recent tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve [1]. Economic Indicators - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, indicating that investors are preparing for future inflation [1][3]. - The bond market has issued cautious signals, with the 30-year Treasury yield surging [2]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility in controlling inflation [1][4]. - If President Trump replaces more regional Fed chairs with dovish policymakers, it may increase pressure for looser monetary policy, raising concerns about inflation [4]. Policy Implications - Stagflation is considered more challenging to address than traditional recessions, as rising inflation limits the Fed's ability to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy [1]. - The Fed's decision to lower rates in September, despite rising inflation expectations, is viewed as a significant error that could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields [3][4]. Trade and Tariff Effects - Ongoing warnings about stagflation risks have been prevalent, particularly in light of Trump's tariff policies, which are expected to raise consumer prices and hinder global trade, potentially damaging economic growth [4].