Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Shenzhou International (02313) at 4.39/4.80 HKD for 2025/26, with a target price raised by 5.5% to 73.72 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential based on the adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15/14 times for 2025/26 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue to 15 billion HKD for 1H25, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 8% to 3.2 billion HKD, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The interim dividend declared is 1.38 HKD per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 60% [2] Revenue Growth Drivers - The 15% revenue growth exceeded expectations, primarily driven by rapid sales growth and market share gains among major clients [3] - Revenue contributions from key brands were as follows: Uniqlo (+27%), Nike (+6%), Adidas (+28%), and Puma (+15%); regional revenue growth was reported as: China (-2%), Europe (+20%), Japan (+18%), and the US (+36%) [3] Margin Analysis - Gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% in 1H25, influenced by several factors including increased labor costs due to wage hikes in 2H24, rising employee numbers in Cambodia, and changes in customer mix [4] - Other income sources, such as government subsidies and foreign exchange gains, increased by 230 million HKD year-on-year, but were offset by a higher effective tax rate, which rose by 1.7 percentage points to 12.5% [4] Tariff and Production Capacity - The impact of tariffs is manageable, with stable order rhythms and pricing agreements under current tariff arrangements with the US [5] - The company continues to expand its workforce in Southeast Asia, particularly in Cambodia and Vietnam, enhancing its production capacity and global operational advantages [5] Future Outlook - Management maintains guidance for low double-digit order growth in 2025, with expectations for high single-digit year-on-year growth in order volume for 2H25 [6] - An improvement in gross margin is anticipated in 2H25 as the one-time wage increases and customer mix issues are resolved [6]
中金：维持申洲国际(02313)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至73.72港元