7月人民币汇率维持双向波动

Core Viewpoint - In July, the US dollar experienced a significant rebound due to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and accelerated tariff negotiations with major trading partners, while the Chinese yuan faced downward pressure despite some support from the central bank's actions [1][2]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $206.43 billion in July, maintaining above $200 billion for four consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [2]. - The onshore yuan fluctuated within a narrow range of 7.1550 to 7.1860 at the beginning of July, followed by a slight appreciation, but ultimately depreciated by 0.38% to close at 7.1930 by the end of the month [2]. - The CFETS yuan index against a basket of currencies rose to 96.76, reflecting a 1.48% appreciation compared to the previous month [2]. Offshore and Onshore Yuan Discrepancy - In July, the offshore yuan shifted from a premium to a discount against the onshore yuan, with the average daily discrepancy being -14 basis points, indicating minimal deviation between the two rates [3]. - The first half of July saw a balanced buying and selling force in the spot market, but by the second half, there was a notable increase in demand for buying yuan, leading to an overall net buying position for the month [3]. Interest Rate Differentials - In July, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose from approximately 4.25% at the beginning of the month to a peak of 4.5% in mid-July, before settling at 4.37% by the end of the month [4][5]. - The interest rate differential between Chinese and US bonds widened slightly, ending the month at -271 basis points [5].