Core Viewpoint - The pesticide industry is expected to continue its long-term growth, but short to medium-term performance is affected by capital expenditure and inventory fluctuations, showing cyclical characteristics. Recent signals indicate a potential reversal in the industry after three years of decline since Q3 2022, with glyphosate prices likely to rise significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Cycle Analysis - The pesticide industry has a clear cyclical pattern, with major cycles occurring every 5-6 years, typically lasting 2-3 years in both upturns and downturns. The demand cycle and capital expenditure tend to resonate, leading to increased capital spending during periods of high demand [1]. - From 2021 to 2023, the industry saw significant new capacity expansion, with over 550,000 tons of herbicide, insecticide, and fungicide capacity planned or newly built in China. However, high overseas inventory and weak demand led to a downturn that is expected to last until Q2 2025 [1]. Group 2: Current Cycle Judgement - Currently, the pesticide price index remains at a low point, but some industry data suggests a reversal. The latest pesticide formulation export value reached 18.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25%, nearing Q2 2022 levels [2]. - U.S. agricultural chemical inventory data indicates a positive trend, with inventory growth turning positive after three years of stagnation, aligning with China's export data and signaling an industry cycle upturn driven by comprehensive inventory replenishment [2]. Group 3: Glyphosate Market Trends - Glyphosate, as the largest pesticide category, shows a strong upward trend in fundamentals. Production capacity increased from 730,000 tons in 2020 to 810,000 tons in 2022, but growth stagnated afterward. The operating rate of glyphosate has gradually recovered from a low of 52.5% in May 2023 to 78.0% by July 2025 [3]. - Since Q2 2025, glyphosate inventory has rapidly decreased from 82,600 tons in April to 28,500 tons by mid-August, a reduction of 67%. Concurrently, glyphosate prices have risen from 23,400 yuan to 27,000 yuan per ton, with expectations of surpassing the 30,000 yuan mark as the cycle improves [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading pesticide formulation company Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035.SZ) and leading pesticide raw material company Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH). Other notable companies include Guangxin Co., Ltd. (603599.SH) and Haier (603639.SH) [4].
华创证券：农药行业景气周期已至 结构性行情转向全面周期向上
智通财经网·2025-08-28 01:50