美债收益率曲线趋陡 避险支撑金价逼近3400

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing low volatility, with prices remaining within a defined range as the market awaits U.S. economic data and maintains an 87% expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][2]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, gold opened at $3,393.50 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,373.48, and later rebounded to a high of $3,398.30, closing at $3,396.59, reflecting a daily range of $25.10 and a slight increase of $3.34 or 0.10% [2]. - The U.S. dollar initially rose to a three-week high of 98.72 but closed around 98.17, influenced by investor focus on Federal Reserve policies and political developments in France [2]. Bond Market Insights - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a near four-month low of 3.625%, while the 10-year yield dropped to 4.236%, and the 30-year yield rose to 4.915%, resulting in the widest spread between five-year and 30-year yields since August 2021 [3]. - The demand for a $70 billion five-year Treasury auction was average, indicating investor adaptation to a low-yield environment [3]. Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices are trading above all moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) rising to approximately $3,357.20 per ounce, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Recent price action shows increased buying interest, with gold encountering buyers near the bullish 20-period SMA on the four-hour chart [4]. Resistance and Support Levels - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,400, $3,420, and $3,430, while support levels are at $3,360, $3,350, and $3,330 [5].