Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-28 05:16Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape in the food delivery market has intensified, leading to significant declines in the stock prices of major players, including Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com, following Meituan's disappointing Q2 earnings report [1][3]. Financial Performance - Meituan reported Q2 revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. However, adjusted net profit plummeted by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, falling short of expectations [1]. - The company's operating profit is projected to drop from 15.2 billion yuan in Q2 2024 to 3.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with the operating profit margin decreasing from 25.1% to 5.7% year-on-year [1]. Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, Meituan's stock price fell over 10%, reaching a new low since September of the previous year. Alibaba and JD.com also experienced stock declines of over 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively [1]. - Citigroup downgraded Meituan's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" on August 28, reflecting concerns over the company's performance [3]. Future Projections - CICC forecasts a 13% decline in Meituan's Q3 food delivery revenue due to intensified competition and a decrease in average order value. They also predict a core local business operating loss of 12.5 billion yuan for Q3 [3]. - CICC maintains an outperform rating but has reduced the target price by 19.4% to 125 HKD [3]. - CMB International has lowered its revenue forecasts for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 by 4%-6%, adjusting the target price from 181.6 HKD to 164 HKD, while still holding a "Buy" rating due to long-term competitiveness [3]. Strategic Focus - Meituan's CEO, Wang Xing, emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining its market position amidst fierce competition, stating that the company has grown through competition [4]. - The company plans to focus on ecosystem development, benefiting consumers, merchants, and delivery riders, while also enhancing rider welfare and support [4]. - Meituan has announced plans to eliminate late penalties for riders by the end of 2025 and will implement measures to promote fairer and more humane incentive mechanisms [4]. Growth Priorities - Meituan's flash delivery service has achieved profitability for several consecutive quarters. The company prioritizes growth over immediate profitability to maintain its leading position in the market [5]. - While subsidies are not expected to decrease significantly in the current quarter, they are anticipated to decline over the long term [5].