日本加息之路迷雾笼罩？央行官员：美关税对日影响具不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's economy remains significant, despite a recent trade agreement that reduced tariffs from 25% to 15% [2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff reduction is seen as insufficient to eliminate the uncertainties affecting Japan's economy, as highlighted by Bank of Japan's committee member Nakagawa Junko [2]. - Japan's economy is heavily export-oriented, making it particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariff policies, which have created a challenging economic environment [4]. - Japan's total exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since February 2021, with exports decreasing for four consecutive months [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue evaluating economic data carefully before making any monetary policy decisions, reflecting the ongoing uncertainties [2]. - Despite the current economic challenges, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5% in July while raising inflation forecasts, which has somewhat boosted market confidence regarding potential rate hikes later this year [4]. - Analysts predict that nearly two-thirds expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, indicating a shift in market expectations [4].