Market Review - On Wednesday evening, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2510 fell by 0.63%, closing at 78,850 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 25, national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 127.1 thousand tons [2] - PT Freeport Indonesia announced that the maintenance work at its Gresik copper smelter in East Java is expected to be completed by early September 2025 [2] - On August 27, the surveyed 56 domestic electrolytic copper trading enterprises reported a daily transaction volume of 28.4 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.35 thousand tons from the previous trading day, representing a 10.99% decline [2] Institutional Views - Shenyin Wanguo Futures noted that the supply of copper concentrate remains tight, putting pressure on smelting profits, while smelting output continues to grow significantly. The National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive growth in the power industry, with a sharp increase in photovoltaic installations year-on-year, although future growth may slow. The automotive sector shows positive growth, while home appliance production growth is slowing, and the real estate market remains weak. The interplay of these factors suggests that copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3] - Jianxin Futures stated that the current domestic spot tightness trend remains unchanged, with the opening of the import window attracting LME inventory to shift to the domestic market. LME inventory increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, with the cumulative increase in August being lower than expected. As the domestic peak season approaches in September, low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. The judgment is that copper prices are likely to rise with difficulty in falling, with the support level raised to 78,500 yuan [3]
LME8月累库幅度低于预期 铜价可能区间波动
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-28 06:09