下游需求暂未现显著回暖 短期铝合金或震荡调整

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic supply of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is expected to decrease due to high raw material costs and tight supply, alongside a reduction in imports [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of August 28, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in major domestic consumption areas reached 37,525 tons, an increase of 2,380 tons compared to the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the closing settlement on August 28, 2025, the price fluctuation limit for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts will be adjusted to 5% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - New Lake Futures noted that the recycled aluminum alloy market has not shown significant improvement, with high prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness. Inventory continues to rise under stable production conditions, exerting pressure on prices. However, the rising scrap aluminum prices provide strong cost support, suggesting that aluminum alloy prices may experience short-term fluctuations [2] - Guoxin Futures highlighted that the price of raw scrap aluminum is on an upward trend, with supply remaining tight, which raises the cost support for aluminum alloys. Downstream demand has not shown significant recovery, leading to high inventory pressure. Additionally, some companies in Anhui and Jiangxi have reportedly reduced or halted production, which may marginally decrease output and support both spot and futures prices. Overall, attention should be paid to aluminum price fluctuations and the realization of seasonal demand, with a medium-term outlook suggesting a potentially strong oscillation for aluminum alloys [3]