Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-28 06:30Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance reported a 6.9% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25, reaching 40.9 billion yuan, slightly better than expectations, primarily due to losses from contracts caused by declining interest rates [1][3] Financial Performance - The pre-tax profit for 1H25 decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The new business value (NBV) showed a mixed performance with a comparable basis NBV increasing by 20.3% while the actual disclosed NBV decreased by 11.5% [2] - The interim dividend increased by 19% to 0.238 yuan per share [1] Business Trends - The new business value exceeded expectations, with a comparable basis NBV growth of 20.3% and a decline of 11.5% on an actual basis [2] - Individual insurance new premiums fell by 21.6%, but the comparable basis NBV rose by 9.5%, indicating a shift towards dividend insurance [2] - The sales force for individual insurance stood at 592,000, a slight decrease of 0.7% from Q1 but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [2] - Bancassurance new premiums surged by 111%, attributed to strategic expansion, with the proportion of periodic premium income decreasing by 27 percentage points to 47.5% [2] - Policy quality indicators improved, with 14-month and 26-month policy persistency rates increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 92.1% and 4.2 percentage points to 88.6%, respectively [2] Marginal Contract Services and Embedded Value - The Contractual Service Margin (CSM) increased by 1.6% to 754.7 billion yuan, driven by new business inflows and interest rate changes [3] - New business CSM decreased by 31% to 26.2 billion yuan, impacted by interest rate assessments and declines [3] - The embedded value (EV) increased by 5.5% from the beginning of the year, indicating stable growth [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - China Life A/H shares are currently trading at 0.7x/0.4x 2025e P/EV [4] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and its outperform rating, with the A-share target price unchanged at 38.60 yuan, corresponding to 0.7x/0.6x 2025e and 2026e P/EV [4] - The H-share target price has been raised by 24.1% to 24.33 HKD, reflecting improved liquidity and a potential upside of 1.9% from the current share price [4]