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昇兴股份(002752):海外业务增长稳健 静待行业供需拐点

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in profitability despite growth in overseas markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 147 million yuan, a decrease of 36.93% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.603 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 51.37% to 54 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 10.34% and 4.57%, respectively, down 4.38 and 2.68 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The company reported domestic and overseas revenues of 2.746 billion yuan and 479 million yuan, respectively, with overseas revenue growing by 12.32% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas gross margin increased by 1.78 percentage points to 24.68%, highlighting the importance of international markets as a growth engine [1]. - The company is actively pursuing global expansion, with production trials at its Indonesian factory and the initiation of production line construction in Vietnam [1]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the metal packaging industry, with an expected increase in profitability for leading firms as market concentration rises [2]. - The company has announced a dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 20% of its distributable profits as cash dividends when conditions are met [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 7.168 billion, 7.715 billion, and 8.385 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in expectations for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The projected net profit for the same period is revised to 398 million, 473 million, and 579 million yuan, indicating a decrease in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [3].