美元反弹压制金银 特朗普罢免理事添变数

Core Insights - Gold prices fell into negative territory during European trading on August 28, influenced by a strong rebound in the dollar and profit-taking, retreating from a high of approximately $3,400 over the past three weeks [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which provided support for gold prices as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - Despite silver failing to maintain gains above $40 per ounce, some fund managers noted its significant upward momentum, suggesting a potential return to historical highs set in 2011 [1] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting the second estimate of U.S. GDP, with expectations of a 3.1% annual growth rate for Q2, which could impact the dollar and commodity prices [2] - Attention will shift to U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for clues on interest rate cuts [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts expressed strong interest in gold due to issues surrounding institutional trust and potential risks to the Federal Reserve's independence [2] - The New York Fed President emphasized the importance of central bank independence amid Trump's intervention in monetary policy [2] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting are nearly 87% [3] - If PCE data does not reflect strong inflation, doubts may arise regarding the Fed's ability to implement rate cuts in September [3] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold prices lost momentum but remain supported above the 100-day EMA, with a resistance level at $3,410 [3] - A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a target of $3,439, while initial support is at $3,351 [3] Technical Analysis - Silver - Silver prices faced pressure after failing to sustain a breakout above a symmetrical triangle pattern, with key support around $38.13 [4] - A breakdown below this support could invalidate recent bullish momentum, while resistance levels are at $38.63 and $39.06 [4]