美联储独立性面临严峻挑战 贵金属市场表现亮眼

Core Insights - The US dollar index showed a typical inverted V-shape pattern, closing slightly down by 0.06% at 98.147 points [2][3] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced upward momentum due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, with gold rising by 0.11% to $3397.46 per ounce and silver increasing by 0.12% to $38.61 per ounce [2][3] Market Overview - The dollar index displayed a stable trend, influenced by uncertainties surrounding the frequent changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and a data-dependent monetary policy stance, leading to doubts about the independence of monetary policy and future interest rate cuts [3] - Progress in tariff agreements between the US and Europe, along with positive negotiations regarding auto tariffs with Japan, may alleviate current trade tensions [3] - However, US pressure on India to cease oil transactions with Russia in exchange for tariff relief poses a potential risk of reigniting trade conflicts, which could lead to significant volatility in the precious metals market [3] Economic Context - The global economic landscape is delicately balanced, with varying policy adjustments from central banks and intertwined geopolitical risks and trade disputes [3] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in policy indicators and international trade dynamics, as minor policy adjustments or unexpected events could disrupt market equilibrium and lead to substantial asset price fluctuations [3] Trading Strategy - The demand for precious metals as a safe haven is supported by policy uncertainty and geopolitical trade risks, but specific trends will depend on forthcoming US economic data and policy signals [4] - In the short term, precious metals are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with gold anticipated to outperform silver [4] - Key technical levels to watch include the $3450 per ounce resistance for gold and the $39 per ounce resistance for silver, with potential upward momentum if these levels are effectively breached [4]