鲜奶与奶酪成新引擎，中国奶业迎来“微增长”时期

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a fundamental shift from macro policy-driven growth to micro-consumer innovation, focusing on cost reduction and product innovation to address challenges such as high raw milk costs and slowing consumption growth [1][2] Group 1: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - The average production cost of raw milk in China is approximately 3.8 to 4.2 yuan per kilogram, which is 30% to 40% higher than the global average of 2.5 to 3.0 yuan per kilogram, leading to higher retail prices for domestic liquid milk products [1] - Experts suggest that the increasing price ratio between processed dairy products and fresh milk indicates that high-end products should not be the development trend; instead, affordable and quality products should dominate the market [1][2] Group 2: Policy and Industry Collaboration - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued a notice aimed at stabilizing the dairy supply chain and ensuring reasonable earnings for farmers through financial support, technical promotion, and fiscal assistance [2] - Analysts emphasize that dairy companies must focus on strengthening supply chain foundations and transitioning to functional and nutritional dairy products to alleviate price pressures [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - The market for low-temperature fresh milk and cheese is emerging as a new growth area, with companies innovating around fresh, healthy, and immediate consumption models to engage younger consumers [5] - The cheese market is experiencing explosive growth, driven by national guidelines promoting snackification and local flavor adaptations, with leading companies actively expanding their cheese offerings [5] Group 4: Channel Innovation - The sales channels for dairy products are evolving from traditional supermarkets to more accessible locations such as hospitals, communities, high-speed rail stations, airports, and schools, enhancing product availability [6] - Companies are implementing targeted strategies, such as vending machines in hospitals and customized products for hotels and events, to ensure dairy products are easily accessible to consumers [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese dairy industry is entering a "micro-growth" era, characterized by comprehensive reforms in cost, product, and channel strategies, marking a significant transition from policy-driven growth to consumer-driven innovation [6]