债市狂欢下的隐忧：投资者的“安全垫”快没了！

Core Viewpoint - The bond pricing mechanism is becoming distorted due to a combination of optimistic economic sentiment and an environment of "excess funds and scarce assets," leading to historically low compensation required by bond investors for taking on default risk [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The credit spread between high-risk assets and safe assets like U.S. Treasuries is narrowing globally, with the risk premium for investment-grade corporate bonds dropping to 81 basis points, close to the lowest level since 2007 [3]. - The absolute yield of bonds is attracting institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies, who are seeking to lock in relatively attractive returns [1][3]. - The phenomenon of "yield chasing" is evident as investors pursue higher coupon yield assets, extending their focus from corporate bonds to emerging market currencies [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - The "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) is driving investor sentiment across all asset classes, with global indices, gold, and Bitcoin reaching historical highs [5]. - Despite concerns about high valuations in the credit market, many investors are still looking for ways to enhance yields, viewing the public and liquid credit market as a relatively high-quality option [5][6]. - The issuance of bonds, such as Allianz's $12.5 billion perpetual bond, demonstrates the intense demand, with the offering receiving $12.5 billion in oversubscriptions [5]. Group 3: Emerging Market Trends - Emerging market dollar bonds have seen their risk premium drop below 260 basis points for the first time since 2013, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [6]. - Asian investment-grade dollar bond spreads have narrowed to 60 basis points, marking a historical low and less than half of the average over the past decade [6]. - Concerns are raised about the indiscriminate buying behavior in the market, which may overlook the distinction between creditworthy issuers and those with potential risks [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - There are warnings about the fragility of the current market conditions, with predictions that the risk premium for investment-grade corporate bonds could widen to 130-140 basis points within the next 12 months [7][9]. - Recent U.S. employment data indicating economic slowdown and weakening service sector sentiment could act as triggers for a market shift [7][9].