聚合顺(605166)：25Q2利润短期承压 中长期核心主线奠基长期价值

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 111 million yuan, down 27.60% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 109 million yuan, a decrease of 26.01% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.93% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.11% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 30 million yuan, down 63.87% year-on-year and 63.07% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items in Q2 was 32 million yuan, a decrease of 61.33% year-on-year and 58.41% quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Dynamics - The fluctuation in raw material prices, particularly the increase in pure benzene prices, led to a rise in caprolactam prices, which subsequently weakened procurement willingness in the downstream market [2] - In Q2 2025, the average price of caprolactam was 9,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.65% compared to Q1 [2] - The PA6 chip average price in Q2 2025 was 10,270 yuan/ton, also down 12.65% from Q1 [2] - The nylon chip industry is expected to reach a production capacity of 8.5 million tons and a production volume of 7 million tons by the end of 2025, with demand at 6.4 million tons [2] - The company has a competitive edge in high-end nylon chip segments and has adjusted its production projects to align with market conditions [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness with the completion of new production bases and capacities [2] - The company has a long-term positive outlook despite current industry pressures, supported by its experience in nylon 6 polymerization and the introduction of nylon 66 products [3] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 350 million, 456 million, and 553 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [3]