美国二季度GDP增速上修至3.3% 商业投资与贸易成主要推力

Economic Growth - The second revision of the U.S. GDP for Q2 shows a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of 3.3%, slightly up from the initial estimate of 3% [1] - This growth is primarily driven by a rebound in business investment and strong trade performance, indicating a stabilization of the economy after fluctuations in Q1 [1] Business Investment - Business investment continued to be a significant support, growing by 5.7% in Q2, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 1.9% [4] - Key factors include an upward adjustment in transportation equipment investment and the strongest growth in intellectual property products in four years [4] - The data suggests that the economy is adapting to the new trade policy environment after a contraction in Q1 due to accelerated imports before tariff adjustments [4] Gross Domestic Income (GDI) - GDI, another core indicator of economic activity, surged by 4.8% in Q2, far exceeding the 0.2% increase in Q1 [4] - GDI focuses on income and costs in the production phase, while GDP measures the value of final goods and services, both indicating increased economic activity [4] Corporate Profits - Corporate profits rose by 1.7% in Q2, reversing the largest decline since 2020 in Q1 [4] - Non-financial corporate after-tax profits accounted for 15.7% of total value added, significantly above the average level from the 1950s to pre-pandemic [4] - The ability of companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers is a critical variable, potentially impacting inflation [4] Trade Performance - Trade performance was a highlight, with net exports contributing nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, marking a historical high [4] - The calculation logic indicates that while non-U.S. produced goods are included in GDP during consumption, they must be deducted from the total during production [4] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending showed a moderate recovery, with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of 1.6% in Q2, up from the initial estimate of 1.4% but still below long-term trends [5] - The "final sales" metric, which excludes trade and inventory fluctuations, grew by 1.9%, indicating a need for stronger domestic demand [5] - Retailers exhibit mixed attitudes, with Walmart raising its annual sales forecast while Home Depot emphasizes customer financial health [5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core PCE index rose by 2.5% in Q2, consistent with the initial estimate [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on prices has become evident, but there remains room for rate cuts in September due to employment market risks [6] - Overall, the U.S. economy shows resilience driven by trade and investment, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies, persistent inflation, and consumer momentum need to be monitored [6]