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Why Is Expand Energy (EXE) Down 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Expand Energy's recent earnings report indicates a mixed performance, with earnings per share missing estimates but showing year-over-year growth, while revenues significantly increased compared to the previous year [3][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 2025 were $1.10, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14, but up from $0.01 in the same quarter last year [3]. - Total revenues from natural gas, oil, and NGL reached $2 billion, missing estimates by $74 million but significantly higher than the $378 million reported a year ago [4]. - Daily production averaged 7,202 MMcfe/day, a 162% increase from 2,745 MMcfe/day a year prior, surpassing the consensus estimate of 7,150 MMcfe/day [5]. Production and Pricing - Natural gas production was 6,596 MMcf/day, up 140% year-over-year, while oil production was 18 MBbl/d and NGL output was 83 MBbl/d [5]. - The average sales price for natural gas was $2.98 per Mcf, an 18.7% increase from $2.51 per Mcf last year, but below the consensus estimate of $3.02 [6]. Costs and Expenses - Total operating expenses rose to $2.4 billion from $799 million a year ago, driven by increased gathering, processing, and transportation costs [7]. - Marketing costs increased to $791 million from $141 million in the previous year, and depreciation expenses rose by 121% [7]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned $448 million to shareholders in Q2 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, with a base dividend of $137 million and a variable dividend of $211 million [8]. Financial Position - Cash flow from operations was $1.3 billion, up from $209 million a year ago, with capital expenditures totaling $657 million, resulting in free cash flow of $665 million [9]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had $731 million in cash and cash equivalents and long-term debt of $5.1 billion, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 22.2% [9]. Guidance - For Q3 2025, Expand Energy targets average daily production of 7,150-7,250 MMcfe, with full-year 2025 production expected to be 7,000-7,200 MMcfe [11]. - Capital spending is budgeted between $760 million and $840 million for the upcoming quarter, and between $2.9 billion and $3 billion for the full year [11]. Market Sentiment - Estimates for the company have trended downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -5.18% over the past month [12]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [14].