美国7月PCE前瞻：关税影响料升级，或难阻9月降息

Group 1 - Price pressures related to tariffs are expanding in the goods sector and spreading to the services sector [1][3] - The core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% year-on-year, marking a new high since February [2] - The furniture industry is facing a 4.2% year-on-year increase due to tariffs and supply chain bottlenecks, with companies like Ashley Furniture and Ethan Allen passing costs to consumers [2][3] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI in the U.S. expanded at the fastest rate in over three years, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures [3] - Wells Fargo predicts that core PCE will peak slightly above 3% by the end of the year, indicating challenges for the Federal Reserve in balancing its dual mandate [3] - Goldman Sachs reports that by October, U.S. consumers will bear two-thirds of the cost increases due to tariffs, while foreign exporters and U.S. companies will bear 25% and 8%, respectively [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook remains uncertain, with recent statements from Chairman Powell indicating a potential rate cut in September [4] - Major banks have adjusted their forecasts, with Morgan Stanley and Barclays now predicting rate cuts in September and December [4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat from the Trump administration, which could lead to significant uncertainties in future policy decisions [5]